| 摘要: | 五運六氣的理論出自於中醫經典之作-《黃帝內經》，雖然內容成書於東漢，但是自唐代王冰在注解編次《黃帝內經‧素問》時，將先師所授之秘本補入書中，七篇大論才首見於世。其內容浩瀚深奧，經過後世醫家不斷研究實踐，深切的影響且豐富了中醫學的發展。運氣學說是在天人合一的思想架構下，透過干支與陰陽五行的邏輯推演，來探討自然界的氣候變化，以及對人體健康的影響。千餘年來醫家對於其內容諸多推崇，認為中醫的核心，就是運氣學說。不識五運六氣，就算讀再多書也是枉費。
任何一理論都有其發展的時空條件，五運六氣理論發展於數千年前古中國黃河流域平原的中心地帶，受到當時的天文曆法，地理環境，氣候等條件的影響。相較之下，位處於中國大陸東南方，屬於海島型氣候的臺灣，具有中央高隆，南北狹長的特殊地型，同時受到中國大陸及西太平洋海洋氣候的影響，有著四季如春，且全年濕度高的氣候特色。運用五運六氣理論所推演出的氣候變化，是否符合臺灣的實際氣候表現？
本論文藉由統計分析中央氣象局在全臺共23個氣象站，在1990-2016年內觀測到的月平均氣溫，月累積雨量，以及月平均濕度等資料，發現27年內的年平均氣溫都在21℃上下，並沒有出現明顯的偏寒或偏熱變化。年平均氣溫最高與最低的前三名，與屬於太過與不及之年的氣候比對，與運氣理論推演結果相符合的寒熱率只佔三成的比例。
27年間的年平均濕度也差異不多，最高為82.27±6.37％，最低為78.33±5.88％，屬於濕度偏高的海島型區域表現。實際平均濕度最高的三年裡，有二年屬於金運太過，運氣理論推測應為乾燥之年。實際平均濕度最低的三年裡，同樣有二年屬於土運太過，運氣理論推測應屬潮濕的年份。
以平均值與標準差描述連續變項，如氣溫、累積降雨量與濕度之分布，用羅吉斯回歸分析及廣義估計方程來探討運氣學說推測冷、熱、乾及濕的勝算比，得到年度與半年度的推估不一致的結果，同時發現臺灣實際氣候表現相符性不高。雖然以上統計分析所取樣的時間不夠長，但初步仍可得到台灣的氣候變化不適用於運氣理論推測的結論。
運氣學說除了能推演氣候變化外，也能預測疫病的發生。根據臺灣農委會所發表的動物防疫檢疫年報資料，統計1992-2015等24年間的禽畜疫情資料，並與運氣學說的天符、太乙天符、同天符、歲會、同歲會等預測可能出現較大疾病流行之年份，以及受在泉之氣所制的五蟲耗不成等年相比對，結果同樣發現與實際臺灣禽畜疫情的發生率並無明顯關聯。
本次以近二十餘年來臺灣實際氣候表現，與禽畜疫情統計的觀察結果，雖不能完全符合運氣學說所推演出的氣候變化及疾病發生的結果，但學習運氣學說的精神在於了解並順應天、地、四時的氣候變化。而非刻板的死守干支符號的推演方式，不知變通的套用五行生克的邏輯，去解釋或預測自然界的氣候變化，疾病的演變發展。地理地域的不同，會造就不同的氣候表現；不同民情的生活方式，也會造就出不同的體質與好發疾病，應該選用不同的治療方法以應對。縱然運氣學說是古人長期觀測天文，地理與人事表現所得到的寶貴經驗，但不應將其推演的結果視為必然。
For thousands of years the Yun-Qi theory, also known as the theory of five circuits and six qi, has been one of the most important theories recognized in the development of Traditional Chinese Medicine. Even though many medical books have been researched, most practitioners believe it is all in vain if one doesn’t know the Yun-Qi. Apparently, as the saying goes, the spirit of medicine is only in the Yun-Qi.
The development of the Yun-Qi theory is based on “The Yellow Emperor’s inner canon”(Huangdi Neijing), which was written two-thousand years ago. At that time, the ancient peoples in the central area of mainland China recognized their world with certain climatic and geographical environments. Compared with the past and China, Taiwan has an island climate. The Pacific ocean’s currents pass, making it susceptible to climate change. The weather here is warm and humid all year around. The question is, can the Yun-Qi theory analyze and predict potential climate-related disasters ?
From collecting data and analyzing the weather conditions for over 27 years(1990-2016), including average monthly temperatures, humidity levels, and accumulated precipitation, as observed by 23 weather stations located throughout Taiwan, it was determined that there was no obvious difference in the annual temperature or humidity. In other words, it was neither too cold or too hot, too dry or too wet during those 27 years. According to the Yun-Qi theory, of the top three wettest years, there should also be two years belonging to the driest season. Furthermore, of the top three driest years, there should also be two years belonging to the wettest season. Thus, it appears that the Yun-Qi theory can not correctly determine the weather in Taiwan.
According to the annual reports from the Bureau of Animals and Plant Health Inspection and Quarantine, besides predicting weather, the Yun-Qi theory also predicts epidemic diseases. We can calculate swine and avian epidemic diseases over 24 years (1992-2015), then compare the epidemic situations to the Yun-Qi theory’s forecasted results. The final analysis is that there is no correlation between the weather conditions and swine and avian epidemic diseases in Taiwan.
Taiwan is an island in the western Pacific ocean. The climate here is influenced by its location, generally hot and humid. The most important thing to learn from the Yun-Qi theory is to not go against or conflict with nature. Thus, the theory emphasizes that in order to live in peaceful coexistence with nature, one needs to realize how the world moves but not rigidly follow the “stems and branches” or era symbols . |
