永續社會及人類安全/公共衛生與環境變遷之相關性探討及因應方案---水、旱、風災對台灣地區公共衛生之相關性探討及因應方案(I)

中國醫藥大學機構典藏 China Medical University Repository, Taiwan > 公共衛生學院 > 環境醫學研究所(已停用) > 研究計畫 > Item 310903500/25480

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题名:	永續社會及人類安全/公共衛生與環境變遷之相關性探討及因應方案---水、旱、風災對台灣地區公共衛生之相關性探討及因應方案(I) Public Health Impact Associated with Flood, Drought, and Typhoon in Taiwan and Dealing Strategies (I)
作者:	宋鴻樟;吳聰能;吳俊霖;謝英恆;王玉純
贡献者:	中國醫藥大學環境醫學研究所
关键词:	水災;颱風;停水;旱災;聖嬰現象;相對危險;flood;typhoon;outage;drought;El Nino;relative risk of health effect
日期:	2010-07
上传时间:	2010-09-02 18:24:24 (UTC+8)
摘要:	過去幾個世紀間，地表溫度逐漸上升，尤其是過去幾十年間。然而，伴隨著氣候變遷發生的降雨型態的變化則沒有顯示出一致的趨勢。全球降雨量雖然逐漸減少，但變化趨勢因地而異。有些地區總降雨量有增加的情形，並伴隨著暴雨及極端降雨頻率逐漸增加。有些地區雖然極端降雨的頻率增加，總降雨量卻是減少或不變。研究報告顯示自1950 年來地球發生的自然災害有明顯上升的趨勢，其中以水災、風災及極高溫事件（熱浪、乾旱）最為顯著。全球變遷對於人類健康有廣泛的影響，其中一部分衝擊來自於氣象事件發生頻率及強度的改變，及其直接造成的死亡與就醫量增加，包括飢荒、傳染病流行、精神疾病。其他部分則來自氣候變遷對於生態及社會系統的間接影響所造成，包括空氣、水品質及生態環境的改變。我們在最近的初步分析發現，水災或停水時期，有較高的腸胃病、皮膚病及眼科就醫率，需進一步探究。本子計畫預計使用1996-2007 年100 萬世代健保歸人檔、死亡檔、侵台颱風資料庫、水災資料、停水資料及社經指標資料，探討水、旱、風災事件與台灣地區特定傳染病、意外事故、精神疾病及慢性病就醫量之相關、就醫相對危險及延遲效應。並結合中央氣象觀測資料、聖嬰事件資料、水利署相關水利資料，希望了解水文特徵變化、氣象觀測值與氣象事件之相關，以期望建立氣象事件對健康影響之預警值提供決策者參考。本子計畫的特定目標包括： 1. 探討1996-2007 年水災、旱、停水、風災與特定傳染病、過敏性疾病、意外事故、精神疾病及慢性病之相關及就醫相對危險、延遲效應。但不限於此，若干慢性病亦為可探討之對象。 2. 探討1996-2007 年ENSO 事件及強度與特定傳染病、過敏性疾病、意外事故及精神疾病的相關及就醫趨勢、是否有延遲效應，以了解聖嬰事件或其特性是否可做為健康損失之預期因素。 3. 利用中央氣象局氣象觀測資料及停水、水災、風災資料等相關水利資料、聖嬰事件資料，以數學模式建立氣象災害及疾病暴發流行之預警值。 4. 參考國際相關之課題與因應策略，以便建立應變機制及達到預警之目的，提供決策者參考。 The average global temperature has increased in the past few centuries, particularly in recent decades. The variation of rainfall pattern related to climate change did not show a consistent trend. Changes in climate and rainfall varied among areas worldwide. In some regions, the total rainfall is increased, accompanied with more frequent heavy rainfalls. In other regions, although the frequence of extreme rainfall increased, total rainfall decreased or remained the same. Studies in the past revealed that the number of natural disaster have increased since 1950s, especially floods, hurricanes and extreme heat events (heat waves, droughts). Climate change has been associated with impacts on human health. The impact may associated with changing frequence and intensity of climatic events, including the increased mortality and morbidity caused directly from natural disasters, such as famines, infectious diseases outbreaks, and mental diseases, and chronic diseases. The other part of impact is indirectly caused by changes of ecosystem and social system, including changes in ecological environment, and air and water qualities. In our preliminary study, we have found that diarrhea diseases, and skin and eye infection are increased during the flood in Taiwan. It is necessary to conduct a further study to explore the related effect in depth and with a much broader aspects of health issues. The proposed study will utilitze 1996-2007 National Health Insurance with a cohort of 1,000,000 persons data, extreme weather events data (typhoon, flood), water outage data, meteorological data and socialeconomic data in Taiwan, to explore the relationship between weather events and medical treatments for special diseases, relative risks, and lag effects. We will combine medical data, climatic event data, and hydrological data from Water Resources Agency to investigate the association between specific diseases and variations of hydrological features, meteorological data, and weather events. We hope to estabilish threshold values for impacts of climatic events on human health, and provide useful information for decision making. This proposed subproject has the following specific aims: 1. To investigate the occurrence and risk of infectious diseases, allergics, accidents, psychosis events, and chronic diseases associated with floods, droughts, outages, and typhoons,etc. 2. To investigate whether ENSO enhances the above mentioned climate status and the impacts on health issues. 3. To use the meteorological data, rcords of flood, outage and typhoon, and ENSO data for estabilishing mathematical models and predicting climate disasters and diseases occurrence. 4. To estabilish response strategies for the purposes of prevention management and policy decision.
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