| 摘要: | 本研究探討青少年騎士發生機車事故時, 那些因子會影響他們受傷的嚴重程度。我們追蹤約4500位台北及花蓮的學生17個月,總共有1284個學生發生1889次的機車事故。追蹤前我們測量所有學生的基本資料,當學生發生機車事故後,則透過學生代表立即請他們填寫事故相關的問卷,測量當時可能相關的危險因子。本研究將發生事故的騎士分成三種受傷嚴重程度:沒有受傷、輕傷與重傷。多變項統計方面,我們使用比例勝算模式分析哪些因子獨立影響受傷嚴重程度,並利用Generalized estimate equations調整一人卻有多次事故之非獨立事故。研究結果顯示鄉村道路比都市道路使騎士在發生事故時較易有輕傷或重傷,調整後勝算比(Odds ratio)為1.71;與沒有碰撞任何物體的事故比較,與行進汽車碰撞、與停泊汽車碰撞以及與車道旁靜物碰撞如燈桿、樹木或防護欄都較易產生輕傷或重傷,三者之勝算比分別為1.77、1.93與2.33。另外,發生機車事故時,三陽與三葉機車比光陽較易產生輕傷或重傷,勝算比分別為1.63與 1.38;沒有路燈的夜晚比白天易有輕傷或重傷,勝算比為1.62。與騎速每小時小於21公里比較,其他較高的騎速都顯示較易產生輕傷或重傷,勝算比為 1.29;並有劑量反應之正相關。此外,無機車駕照者較有機車駕照者易發生輕傷或重傷,勝算比為1.29。本研究的結論是,事故時引起傷害的因子不同於引起事故的因子。由於有些機車事故難以預防,因此本研究結果將有助於機車發生事故時傷害的預防及減少嚴重的機車傷害。
Objectives: This study examined risk factors for injury severity while a motorcycle crashes occurs among adolescent riders. Methods: In a junior-college student cohort, 1,889 motorcycle crashes, contributed by 1,284 study subjects, were ascertained in a 17-month follow-up period. A baseline self-administered questionnaire measured demographics of the cohort, and a motorcycle-crash questionnaire asked about crash characteristics when a student had a crash. A proportional odds model, which dealt with correlated ordinal responses: non-injury, a mild injury and a severe injury, was used to describe the risk of injury severity in a motorcycle crash. Results: The adjusted odds ratio (OR) of rural to urban roads on having a higher level of injury severity was 1.71. Furthermore, compared with non-collision crashes, collisions with a moving car (OR=1.77), a parked car (OR=1.93), and a stationary object such as a post (OR=2.33) has increased risk of a higher level of injury severity to riders. Riders using Sanyang (OR=1.63) and Yamaha (OR=1.38) had a greater risk as compared with those using Kymco. The dark (OR=1.62 compared to the daylight), higher speeds (ORs from 1.63 to 4.68 compared to the lowest speed group of <21) and unlicensed status (OR=1.29 compared to the licensed) also increased the risk of a higher level of injury severity to riders. Conclusions: The risk factors that predict the motorcycle injuries in a crash are different from those factors predicting motorcycle crashes. Since a part of motorcycle crashes is difficult to avoid, our results are conducive to the development of prevention programs for reducing the occurrence of motorcycle injuries to riders in a crash. |
